In this episode we look at the time in February 1524 when Londoners decided to flee to higher ground because of a prophesy saying that the Thames would rise, and 10,000 houses would be destroyed. We go back 40 years and talk about astrology, Grand Conjunctions, and the Vatican Astrologer who used mass media to create a European Hysteria. Let’s dig in!
Sources:
‘The Flood’ of 1524: The First Mass-media Event in European HistoryBy Gustav-Adolf Schoener
Esoterica, Vol.9 (2007)
http://www.esoteric.msu.edu/VolumeIX/EsotericaIX.pdf
James Randi Educational Foundation: Storming The Ark
DetailsWritten by Dr. Romeo Vitelli Published: 25 January 2011
http://archive.randi.org/site/index.php/swift-blog/1198-storming-the-ark.html
Extraordinary Popular Delusions And The Madness Of Crowds, by Charles Mackey, 1841
Read online: http://www.gutenberg.org/ebooks/24518
Rough Transcript of Episode 138: The 1524 Flood Apocalypse
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Hello and welcome to the Renaissance English History Podcast, a part of the Agora Podcast Network. I’m your host, Heather Teysko, and I’m a storyteller who makes history accessible because I believe it’s a pathway to understanding who we are, our place in the universe, and being more deeply in touch with our own humanity. This is Episode 138, and it’s all about the time Londoners thought about building arks in 1524. You can get show notes at englandcast.com/flood.
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So today I want to tell you a story about the end of the world. Or, at least a time when Europe thought the world was ending. Many of you picked up a little sentence I said in last week’s episode about the northern suburbs, namely that Hampstead and Highgate hills saw a flood of people in 1524 when a great flood was predicted. What the!? That’s what I thought too, when I first read that sentence. This definitely needed some extra searching and investigation. What I found is a fascinating tale of a freakout about a prophecy driven by mass media, perhaps the first time we saw that happen.
Remember about 20 years ago – well, 20 years and 3 weeks really, when we were all freaking out about Y2K? I remember I went with my dad to Costco to buy bottled water – that was his nod to the hysteria. But midnight came, and the ball dropped in Times Square, and the computers didn’t go crazy, and the water didn’t shut off, and life carried on just as it had? Well, that happened in Europe in 1524, and it’s worth its own episode to discuss, not just because of the way people reacted, but also because of the role that the printing press had in disseminating the prophecy.
On the 1st of February, over 20,000 people fled the center of London out of fear that a massive tidal wave was going to destroy the city. Throughout Europe people built towers and arks in an effort to survive, or moved to higher ground. Where did this come from?
The first thing to know is that every 20 years there is a conjunction of Jupiter and Saturn in the solar system. In 1484 these planets convened in the sign of Scorpio, which astrologers took to mean that a prophet was coming. Remember, this is a period where astrology and hard science were not separated. John Dee was Elizabeth I’s advisor – he had the largest library in Europe and supported early astronomers and mathematicians, but he also had a conjuring table. So they are linked.
The sign that the planets converged in indicated what the event meant. For that one in 1484, prophesying a prophet, many believed in retrospect that it referred to Martin Luther. Astrologers calculated that another Grand Conjunction would occur in 1524, and this one would be a doozy – seven planets would join together in February of that year. Whatever sign that meant, it was going to be a big one. Since the conjunction would happen in the sign of Pisces, people took that to mean that it would be water-related, specifically a flood.
In 1499 the astrologer Johann Stöffler published his “Ephemerides” (Stöffler was a professor of mathematics in Tübingen). In these Ephemerides, Stöffler predicted that a “Grand Conjunction” in Pisces would occur in February of 1524, and it would “show an indubitable transformation (mutatio), change (variatio), and reversal (alteratio) over nearly the entire world, the climate zones, empires, countries, cities and classes, in insensible creatures, the creatures of the sea, and everything born on earth, as forsooth has not been heard of for many years, neither by historians nor by the forefathers.”
Sounds daunting, right? But for now, people didn’t pay too much attention. Some in the philosophical and astrological circles paid attention, but mostly it was so general and obscure that no one paid much heed. Also it was published in Latin, so that meant that only the learned could understand it.
Then the Italians entered the picture. Luca Gaurico was the most famous astrologer in Europe, and was part of the faculty of astrology at the University of the Vatican in 1520 by Pope Leo X (yes, the Pope appointed an astrologer). But he was also respected by humanist and Protestant theologians. Referring to Johann Stöffler’s prediction, he dramatized the prophecy and introduced in his “Prognosticon 1503-1535”. The main theme that was to influence the entire debate which followed: natural catastrophes of enormous dimensions, floods, destruction of entire cities by unbelievable storms. He was the first astrologer to use the term “The Flood” and substantiate it astrologically with the “watery” zodiac sign of Pisces.
Writing in the journal Esoterica, Gustav-Adolf Schoener from the Universität Hannover says, “It was also Gaurico who brought this vision of horror onto the stage of European politics: in 1512 he sent the “Reichstag of Trier” his proclamation of impending natural catastrophes, supplemented by predictions of social unrest.5 This so impressed and alarmed Prince Ludwig V (and the entire German “Reichstag”) that the astrologer Johann Stöffler, author of the first mild prediction and Johann Virdung of Hassfurt were commissioned to compile counter statements. Johann Stöffler rightly defends himself in his appraisal: he had never predicted a “Flood” and Virdung of Hassfurt refers to the Bible in his expertise to Genesis 9:11, where God had promised Noah that there would never again be a flood which would destroy the earth.6 The astrologer Gaurico thus appears to have been found guilty by other astrologers of exaggeration at least,” Again, that’s Gustav Adolf Schoener, and I link to the full article in the show notes.
But Guarico had unleashed the dam, to use a watery analogy. As Schoener notes in his article, this was right at the beginning of the printing press, and the fact that for the first time people were creating media for the normal everyday person, as opposed to monks writing manuscripts in Latin for other scholars. Just like today, clickbait sells. Some things never change. Suddenly there were multiple pamphlets coming out, each more sensational than the last. One by the Italian astrologer Tommaso Giannotti, predicted a “flood of unimaginable proportions.”
In 1521 Johannes Carion, an astrologer and advisor to the court of Prince Joachim I of Brandenburg predicted a great flood. The title above the cover illustration says: “Prognosticatio and Explanation of the Great Watering and Other Terrible Effects.” The picture, I have it in the show notes at englandcast.com/flood, shows four parts starting with a peaceful scene in the sunshine in 1521. The next picture shows the great Flood and the destruction of a city. The lower picture shows the peasants executing clergy, predicting class warfare in addition to flooding. Good times.
This was going to be more than just a flood – it was the beginning of the end of the world.
Some astrologers did respond. An Agostino Nifo da Sessa, published arguments against the interpretation of a large flood in a pamphlet in Italy called “The true liberation from the Flood panic,” and some suggested that there would be a flood of renewed fervor for Christianity, which would be a good thing. But the genie was out of the bottle, and between 1519 and 1523 over 60 authors wrote about the flood, with over 160,000 pamphlets being published. If you published 160,000 copies of a book now it would definitely enter the national conversation – imagine what it was like for people then!
Astrologers did start to worry about the panic. Even Gaurico, who contributed greatly to this atmosphere, tried to defuse the situation with a “consolation treatise”, shortly before the expected events, but it was too late. Even Leonardo da Vinci was seized by the fever, creating ten drawings in response to the prophesy.
How did everyday people in Europe respond to this? In Italy they began building arks in November of 1523 and nobles went on trips into the high forests for “hunting” or “farming” – I’m using air quotes there. In Germany there was discussion of how to build arks, and many fled coastal cities. There is evidence that they stopped tilling fields, and sold their possessions.
How did Londoners react to all of this? There’s a book that describes this event in great detail called: Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds, an early study of crowd psychology by Scottish journalist Charles Mackay, first published in 1841. I’m going to read to you from it a bit right now. He’s discussing the faith people have in astrological predictions, like that of Nostradamus.
MacKay wrote, “A still more singular instance of the faith in predictions occurred in London in the year 1524. The city swarmed at that time with fortune-tellers and astrologers, who were consulted daily by people of every class in society on the secrets of futurity. As early as the month of June 1523, several of them concurred in predicting that, on the 1st day of February, 1524, the waters of the Thames would swell to such a height as to overflow the whole city of London, and wash away ten thousand houses. The prophecy met implicit belief.
It was reiterated with the utmost confidence month after month, until so much alarm was excited that many families packed up their goods, and removed into Kent and Essex. As the time drew nigh, the number of these emigrants increased.
In January, droves of workmen might be seen, followed by their wives and children, trudging on foot to the villages within fifteen or twenty miles, to await the catastrophe. People of a higher class were also to be seen, in waggons and other vehicles, bound on a similar errand. By the middle of January, at least twenty thousand persons had quitted the doomed city, leaving nothing but the bare walls of their homes to be swept away by the impending floods.
Many of the richer sort took up their abode on the heights of Highgate, Hampstead, and Blackheath; and some erected tents as far away as Waltham Abbey, on the north, and Croydon, on the south of the Thames.
Bolton, the prior of St. Bartholomew’s, was so alarmed that he erected, at very great expense, a sort of fortress at Harrow-on-the-Hill, which he stocked with provisions for two months. On the 24th of January, a week before the awful day which was to see the destruction of London, he removed thither, with the brethren and officers of the priory and all his household.
A number of boats were conveyed in waggons to his fortress, furnished abundantly with expert rowers, in case the flood, reaching so high as Harrow, should force them to go further for a resting-place. Many wealthy citizens prayed to share his retreat, but the Prior, with a prudent forethought, admitted only his personal friends, and those who brought stores of eatables for the blockade. At last the morn, big with the fate of London, appeared in the east. The wondering crowds were astir at an early hour to watch the rising of the waters. The inundation, it was predicted, would be gradual, not sudden; so that they expected to have plenty of time to escape, as soon as they saw the bosom of old Thames heave beyond the usual mark.
But the majority were too much alarmed to trust to this, and thought themselves safer ten or twenty miles off. The Thames, unmindful of the foolish crowds upon its banks, flowed on quietly as of yore. The tide ebbed at its usual hour, flowed to its usual height, and then ebbed again, just as if twenty astrologers had not pledged their words to the contrary. Blank were their faces as evening approached, and as blank grew the faces of the citizens to think that they had made such fools of themselves. At last night set in, and the obstinate river would not lift its waters to sweep away even one house out of the ten thousand. Still, however, the people were afraid to go to sleep.
Many hundreds remained up till dawn of the next day, lest the deluge should come upon them like a thief in the night. On the morrow, it was seriously discussed whether it would not be advisable to duck the false prophets in the river. Luckily for them, they thought of an expedient which allayed the popular fury. They asserted that, by an error (a very slight one) of a little figure, they had fixed the date of this awful inundation a whole century too early. The stars were right after all, and they, erring mortals, were wrong. The present generation of cockneys was safe, and London ‘would be washed away, not in 1524, but in 1624. At this announcement, Bolton, the prior, dismantled his fortress, and the weary emigrants came back.” again, that’s MacKay writing, and I link to the book in the show notes at englandcast.com/flood.
The flood was meant to start in London and move east through Europe by February 24. As it became clear that nothing was happening in London, it still didn’t affect the preparatoin of those in Europe. In an article called Storming the Ark, Dr Romeo Vitali writes, “In continental Europe, meanwhile, February 24 drew closer and preparations continued to be made despite the debacle in England. Boat builders became rich as landowners and nobles prepared emergency arks for their own survival. Local merchants played up the Apocalypse angle by stocking their shelves with a variety of emergency supplies and prepared to do brisk business. River banks across Europe were dotted with new boats laden with all the food and water they could safely carry.
Of the various known arks to be built, the most ambitious was by a German count named von Iggleheim who constructed a luxury, three-story ark for his friends and family. At the crack of dawn on February 24, von Iggleheim boarded his ark and had his servants drag assorted supplies up the gangplank. Crowds had gathered, mostly out of curiosity, although some of them were having fun at von Iggleheim’s expense. The jeering stopped when the rain started however. While it wasn’t a particularly impressive rainstorm as such, it was enough to panic the crowd. Hundreds were killed in the stampede that followed and then they turned their attention to von Iggleheim’s ark and the other ships nearby. When von Iggleheim refused to allow any of them aboard, he was dragged off his ship and stoned to death by the crowd. The panic only ended when the rain stopped (though the corpses still remained).”
Weather wise, the year 1524 was actually dryer than usual in Europe.
So that’s it for this week – isn’t that a fun story? There’s no specific book recommendation other than that Charles MacKay one, which is fascinating, but I do have links to the various articles I used in compiling this episode at the show notes at englandcast.com/flood. Do let me know what you thought about this episode -You can get in touch with me through the listener support line at 801 6TEYSKO or through twitter @teysko or facebook.com/englandcast. Thanks so much for listening.
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